BENCHEWS · RESEARCH EXPLAINED
How long can a society remain viable?
A society needs more than apparent stability. It must secure basic needs, limit excessive inequality and retain institutions capable of correcting mistakes.
Imagine society as a bridge. Its foundation is people's basic security. Its guardrail limits inequality. Its supporting structures are institutions that listen, respond and correct errors. If one of these weakens, the bridge need not collapse immediately — but keeping society within an acceptable range may become harder.
Basic-needs security
B ≥ 0.8People must be able to meet essential needs. A fall below the model's minimum marks a violation of its chosen normative boundary, not an automatic collapse.
Socioeconomic inequality
G ≤ 0.45Concentrated resources and influence can increase inequality and weaken shared interests. Wealth alone does not prove institutional capture.
Institutional corrective capacity
C ≥ 0.4Independent information, participation and effective institutions help societies respond to warnings and correct mistakes.
The capture trap
A society can remain dynamically stable even when inequality is high and institutional corrective capacity is low. Stability is therefore not identical to a socially desirable outcome.
Correction has limits
Public action is constrained by resources. The model studies how investments in basic needs, institutions and redistribution interact within a limited budget.
u_B + u_C + u_R ≤ U_max
What the numbers mean
In this theoretical, uncalibrated model, the illustrative admissible region requires B ≥ 0.8, G ≤ 0.45 and C ≥ 0.4. The computed full-region viability threshold is approximately 0.1906 model budget units. These are not empirically validated thresholds for any real society.
Illustrative model, not a prediction of societal collapse. The research is a preprint; the numerical thresholds are synthetic and normative.
Bernd von Mallinckrodt · DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.23480636